| Racing is now underway in the early stages of the | | | | not a team succeeds in Valencia. Inherent boatspeed |
| Louis Vuitton Cup, and unfortunately my crystal ball | | | | differences will be minimal for the reasons stated |
| wasn't working as I write this in late March, so I can't | | | | earlier; what will be more important is how well the |
| promise you that what I foresaw was going to | | | | crew works as a unit. In other words, straightline speed |
| happen, actually has happened! However, what I do | | | | is not just down to inherent boatspeed from a |
| know is that to a large extent, all the months of | | | | well-designed boat. Nor is it purely down to the |
| speculation that have been leading up to the event will | | | | precision of the helmsman' steering. It's also down to |
| have been settled very quickly. It's inevitable that any | | | | the trimmers and the grinders moving the sails in and |
| team which has been working every hour of every | | | | out with a telepathic, second-to-second understanding |
| day for the past few months will fool itself into | | | | of what the helmsman is sensing through the wheel. If |
| believing that it has been time and effort well spent, | | | | the helmsman needs to call for the jib trimmer to ease |
| that the boat will match up to expectations, that the | | | | the sheet two clicks, the trimmer has reacted too late, |
| crew will gel in competition exactly as it did in | | | | he should have already done it. This level of telepathy |
| pre-season training. | | | | does not come easily, and getting used to an unfamiliar |
| The reality is that the frailties and weaknesses of | | | | boat makes a hard task even harder. |
| each team will soon become apparent. They always | | | | Add to this the vagaries of Valencia. Adam Beashel, |
| do. In past America's Cups it has taken little more than | | | | the windspotter who spends much of his working day |
| a few hundred metres of sailing for a yawning | | | | up the top of Emirates Team New Zealand's mast, |
| performance gap to become very obvious even to | | | | says there is a random element to the breeze even |
| the most uneducated of observers, such were the | | | | on days when you'd expect a good deal of stability |
| inherent boatspeed differences. The differences are | | | | and predictability. Not only will this call for cool heads |
| unlikely to be so clear cut this time, with the limited | | | | from the decision makers at the back of the boat, but |
| design scope of the Version 5 rule which governs the | | | | the boys in the engine room will have to be tuned into |
| new generation of boats. But it won't take too long | | | | the changeable conditions. Again, teams will have to |
| before some sort of pecking order emerges. | | | | rely on a good deal more than raw boatspeed from |
| It's likely the pecking order will bear strong similarities to | | | | the designer, and far more on the empathy that the 17 |
| the Louis Vuitton Ranking which has been constructed | | | | sailing crew have developed for each other and their |
| from all the match races from the 2005 and 2006 | | | | boat. |
| seasons. However if the pre-season gossip is to be | | | | If the past two and a half years of experience in |
| believed, Luna Rossa has been struggling for pace. | | | | Valencia are anything to go by, the 32nd America's |
| The Spanish on the other hand are likely to have been | | | | Cup will be a predominantly light-wind affair. Not |
| building on an already strong package with the help of | | | | exactly what was written in the brochure when |
| Paul Cayard, so will Desafio Espanol 2007 be able to | | | | Valencia was first awarded the right to host the event. |
| take advantage of the Italians' rumoured weakness? | | | | On my first visit to the city back in 2001 for an IMS |
| Or were the Italians employing that time-honoured | | | | World Championship, I saw brochure-perfect conditions, |
| America's Cup tradition of 'sandbagging', the art of | | | | with the sea breeze blowing in beautifully at about 16 |
| sailing ever so slightly slowly in training or in races that | | | | to 18 knots for a whole week. But that was in August, |
| don't really matter, only to reveal the full extent of your | | | | by which time the mountains inland of the city have |
| devastating boatspeed in the later and more important | | | | really had a chance to heat up in the summer sun. This |
| stages of the regatta? | | | | event is over by early July, and Principal Race Officer |
| There is also the possibility that some teams will | | | | Peter 'Luigi Reggio from Connecticut is predicting more |
| develop their boatspeed throughout the regatta and | | | | light and fickle conditions, particularly in the early weeks. |
| discover new things along the way. This seemed to be | | | | This poses a problem for the challengers that Alinghi |
| the case for Oracle last time in Auckland four years | | | | the defender doesn't have to worry about. Whereas |
| ago, when the Americans were off the pace in the | | | | the challengers' boats must be sufficiently fast to get |
| early round robins but reconfigured the yacht | | | | them through the expected light airs of the round |
| sufficiently to reach the Louis Vuitton Cup final where | | | | robins, the America's Cup Match is taking place late |
| they fell to Alinghi. Another American syndicate | | | | June/ early July, by which time the conditions might |
| OneWorld, on the other hand, came out of the blocks | | | | have strengthened. Knowing where to pitch the 'sweet |
| very fast and then seemed to run out of steam in the | | | | spot' for your boat is a tough call. Back in 1987, Dennis |
| latter stages of the competition. However, of all the | | | | Conner pitched the design of his 12 Metre Stars & |
| teams that did the least reconfiguring of their boat, it | | | | Stripes squarely at the top of the wind range. That |
| was Alinghi's SUI-64 which remained pretty much the | | | | was in the very predictable and reliable conditions of |
| same configuration throughout. Some take the view | | | | Fremantle - 20 knots-plus virtually every day, along |
| that Russell Coutts and the crew had got so used to | | | | with lumpy seas on the Indian Ocean. |
| understanding how to change gear for different wind | | | | Knowing what to expect for Valencia is altogether |
| conditions in their tried and tested boat that they coped | | | | more difficult. Alinghi will be mindful of the fact that they |
| better than anyone with the changeable conditions on | | | | won with a good all-rounder last time in Auckland, while |
| the Hauraki Gulf. So experience suggests that those | | | | it was the Kiwis who on that occasion put all their |
| who have been sailing their new boats the longest are | | | | eggs in one basket - optimizing the radical NZL-82 for |
| most likely to succeed, which speaks well of the Kiwis' | | | | light airs, only for their boat to disintegrate spectacularly |
| preparations. | | | | in the strong winds that arrived in March 2003. |
| It's quite likely that the same feeling of being at home | | | | Valencia could spring similar surprises in the 32nd |
| with your boat will play a significant part in whether or | | | | America's Cup this summer. |